EOI: Baseline Assessment - Financial Innovation and Resource Mobilization – Index Insurance (FIRM II) in Somalia Location is TBD (Puntland/Somaliland)

1.Introduction Innovation Norway has approved “The Financial Innovation and Resource Mobilization Project – Index Insurance (FIRM II). The project is implemented by ADRA and SomReP partners in location is TBD (Puntland/Somaliland) from April 2026 to May 2027. Before full project implementation, and in accordance with the project guidelines, a baseline assessment is planned for September 2026 in the targeted areas of the project locations. The assessment will collect quantitative and qualitative data on key indicators as a reference for tracking the project’s achievements in meeting its objectives and monitoring progress. This ToR is prepared to guide consultants that will be recruited to conduct the baseline assessment in the location is TBD (Puntland/Somaliland).

2. Project Background

In Somalia, pastoralism is the backbone of society. Approximately 55 % of the population practices nomadic herding, while nearly 70 % depend on livestock for their livelihoods. Yet this way of life faces an existential threat from climate change. Increasingly frequent and severe droughts have transformed a system once defined by seasonal rhythms into one perpetual crisis. Acute water shortages and rapid pasture degradation now drive widespread livestock losses, undermining food security and household incomes at scale. Despite these realities, the humanitarian response remains largely reactive. Funding is typically mobilized only after disasters strike, rather than invested in anticipatory and resilience-building measures. Conventional insurance models also fail nomadic communities, as they rely on fixed locations that do not align with pastoral mobility. Combined with weak early warning systems and low financial literacy, these gaps create a persistent “protection gap,” leaving the most vulnerable populations exposed to escalating climate shocks. The Financial Innovation and Resource Mobilization Project – Index Insurance project moves beyond traditional, reactive humanitarian assistance by introducing a robust anticipatory financing model tailored to pastoral systems. While Index-Based Livestock Insurance (IBLI) has previously been piloted in the region, this approach directly addresses the systemic barriers of accuracy, affordability, and accessibility that have historically limited its scale and impact. Conventional insurance schemes often rely on a single indicator, such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), which can be unreliable in arid landscapes or areas with dense tree cover. This project pioneers a multi-index technology stack, combining complementary data sources to ensure payouts are triggered with far greater precision and relevance to on-the-ground conditions. Innovation extends beyond technology to the design of market systems. Rather than offering insurance as a standalone and often abstract product, the model bundles coverage with high-value, immediate tangible services, including direct veterinary inputs and access to tailored microfinance products. This integrated approach increases trust, uptake, and real-world utility for pastoral households. The project targets approximately 2,000 vulnerable pastoralist households and will work through partnerships involving public institutions, insurers, microfinance institutions, technology providers, research institutions, insurance agents, community structures and pastoral households. The implementation approach includes smart subsidies, strengthened insurance distribution systems, access to credit, policy engagement, financial literacy and private-sector capacity strengthening.

3. Project Goal and Outcomes

Strengthened resilience of vulnerable pastoralist households through sustainable access to climate risk financing systems that protect livestock assets and stabilize livelihoods. - Outcome 1: An enabling policy and institutional environment supports the uptake and sustainability of IBLI. Updated the others w/comments accordingly

- Outcome 2: Private sector capacity strengthened to deliver sustainable, accessible IBLI products

- Outcome 3: Innovative and responsive IBLI product design and delivery models developed and scaled.

- Outcome 4: Target households access bundled climate insurance and financial services to enhance resilience

4. Baseline Objective

The purpose of the baseline assessment is to collect data on a set of indicators that will be used to assess achievement of project outcomes and impact. Collected data will form the basis for measuring change over time. 4.1 Specific Objectives - To collect and document data reflecting the before-project-implementation status of key FIRM indicators that will be used as reference points for measuring progress towards stated project outcomes. - To validate the current set of indicators in the M&E framework and, where necessary, support their revision and fine-tuning for better tracking of outcome results. - To provide information necessary for the development of the project’s Results-Based Monitoring and Evaluation Plan, including setting targets and benchmarks. - To provide contextual reference data to inform activity prioritization during project implementation - To provide essential reference data for communicating project progress and to inform learning and decision-making for course-correction during project implementation.

5. Approach

The FIRM baseline Consulting firm will be recruited to lead and be responsible for baseline data collection, analysis and report writing, working in close collaboration with the project’s Program Manager and MEAL Specialist and other technical staff of FIRM project. The Consultant will be required to come up with a technical and financial proposal outlining how the Consultant intends to conduct the assessment. The workplan must be approved by the WV project team before the Consultant can embark on the work. The consultant will be required to use their discretion on the most appropriate research methods and tools, taking into consideration the mi