Valuation of the Flying Rivers of the Amazon & Nature Credits Framework

The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) invites specialized consulting firms to submit proposals to produce a scientifically robust, decision-ready valuation of the ecosystem services linked to the Amazon's Flying Rivers and to design a scalable, high-integrity Nature Credits Framework suitable for piloting.

The objective is to quantify the biophysical and economic contributions of atmospheric moisture transport to agriculture and hydropower across the Amazon Basin, integrate carbon and ecosystem services into a consolidated natural capital asset valuation, and establish the market infrastructure for long-term Nature-based Solutions (NbS) financing.

1. Scope of Services & Key Objectives

Hydroclimate Quantification: Track atmospheric moisture transport and precipitation dependencies attributable to forest integrity across baseline, deforestation, degradation, and restoration scenarios.

Sector Economic Valuation: Model impact on key sectors, focusing on agricultural crop yields (e.g., soy, maize) and hydropower generation. Expand existing Brazilian models to candidate Amazon basin countries (Colombia, Peru, Bolivia, Ecuador, Venezuela, Guyana, and Suriname).

Risk & Portfolio Integration: Establish Value-at-Risk (VaR) metrics under probabilistic climate and deforestation scenarios, consolidating moisture regulation, carbon capture, and biodiversity into an integrated natural capital asset portfolio.

Additionality & Nature Credits Framework: Evaluate incremental economic gains from protection and restoration ("enhanced Flying Rivers") to define credit units, MRV architecture, governance structures, environmental/social safeguards, and minimum registry specifications.

2. Key Activities & Methodological Tasks

Inception & Hydroclimate Modeling: Document the modeling chain linking forest cover to atmospheric moisture, precipitation, and sector monetization, supported by a scientific advisory protocol and QA/QC plan.

Spatial Mapping & Scenario Analysis: Map spatial zones of highest economic risk and gain under multiple climate change and land-use scenarios.

Financial Instrument Design: Structure indicators and mechanisms to support financial instruments capable of sustaining long-term NbS interventions across the Amazon Basin.

3. Core Deliverables & Decision Products

Inception & Modeling Report: Detailed work plan, hydroclimate-to-economic modeling architecture, data registry, and validation protocols.

Integrated Technical Valuation & Risk Assessment: Technical modules for hydroclimate tracking, agricultural/hydropower economic valuations, VaR metrics, and natural capital portfolio synthesis.

Nature Credits Framework Package: Operational credit specifications, MRV requirements, governance protocols, safeguards, and registry design.

Communication & Dissemination Suite: Tailored policy briefs, executive summaries, investor notes, sector visuals, and presentation slide decks.

Note: Interested companies must review the requirements in the BEO Bidders Portal. TheInter-AmericanDevelopmentBank(IDB)invitesspecializedconsultingfirmstosubmitproposalstoproduceascientificallyrobust,decision-readyvaluationoftheecosystemserviceslinkedtotheAmazon'sFlyingRiversandtodesignascalable,high-integrityNatureCreditsFrameworksuitableforpiloting.TheobjectiveistoquantifythebiophysicalandeconomiccontributionsofatmosphericmoisturetransporttoagricultureandhydropoweracrosstheAmazonBasin,integratecarbonandecosystemservicesintoaconsolidatednaturalcapitalassetvaluation,andestablishthemarketinfrastructureforlong-termNature-basedSolutions(NbS)financing.1.ScopeofServices&KeyObjectivesHydroclimateQuantification:Trackatmosphericmoisturetransportandprecipitationdependenciesattributabletoforestintegrityacrossbaseline,deforestation,degradation,andrestorationscenarios.SectorEconomicValuation:Modelimpactonkeysectors,focusingonagriculturalcropyields(e.g.,soy,maize)andhydropowergeneration.ExpandexistingBrazilianmodelstocandidateAmazonbasincountries(Colombia,Peru,Bolivia,Ecuador,Venezuela,Guyana,andSuriname).Risk&PortfolioIntegration:EstablishValue-at-Risk(VaR)metricsunderprobabilisticclimateanddeforestationscenarios,consolidatingmoistureregulation,carboncapture,andbiodiversityintoanintegratednaturalcapitalassetportfolio.Additionality&NatureCreditsFramework:Evaluateincrementaleconomicgainsfromprotectionandrestoration("enhancedFlyingRivers")todefinecreditunits,MRVarchitecture,governancestructures,environmental/socialsafeguards,andminimumregistryspecifications.2.KeyActivities&MethodologicalTasksInception&HydroclimateModeling:Documentthemodelingchainlinkingforestcovertoatmosphericmoisture,precipitation,andsectormonetization,supportedbyascientificadvisoryprotocolandQA/QCplan.SpatialMapping&ScenarioAnalysis:Mapspatialzonesofhighesteconomicriskandgainundermultipleclimatechangeandland-usescenarios.FinancialInstrumentDesign:Structureindicatorsandmechanismstosupportfinancialinstrumentscapableofsustaininglong-termNbSinterventionsacrosstheAmazonBasin.3.CoreDeliverables&DecisionProductsInception&ModelingReport:Detailedworkplan,hydroclimate-to-economicmodelingarchitecture,dataregistry,andvalidationprotocols.IntegratedTechnicalValuation&RiskAssessment:Technicalmodulesforhydroclimatetracking,agricultural/hydropowereconomicvaluations,VaRmetrics,andnaturalcapitalportfoliosynthesis.NatureCreditsFrameworkPackage:Operationalcreditspecifications,MRVrequirements,governanceprotocols,safeguards,andregistrydesign.Communication&DisseminationSuite:Tailoredpolicybriefs,executivesummaries,investornotes,sectorvisuals,andpresentationslidedecks.Note:InterestedcompaniesmustreviewtherequirementsintheBEOBiddersPortal.

Executing unit: Inter-American Development Bank (IDB)

IDB project: RG-T4794

Contact: [contact details removed]

Financed by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB).