National Expert on Assessment and Prioritization of Adaptation Measures

Country: Kazakhstan

Description of the Assignment: National Expert on Analytical Tools for the Assessment and Prioritization of Adaptation Measures

Period of assignment: 95 working days including travel

Place of Work: Home based

Contract type: Individual Contract

PROJECT DESCRIPTION Climate change impacts are already being observed in Kazakhstan. Climate projections, according to Kazakhstan’s Eighth National Communication to the UNFCCC (2022), indicate rising temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, and extreme weather events. Data highlights the scale of the problem: projections show that temperatures in Kazakhstan will increase faster than the global average and faster than in most other Asian countries. Potential warming by the 2090s is estimated at 5.3°C above the baseline of 1986–2005 under the highest emissions concentration scenario (RCP8.5). The projected warming will be even more pronounced in terms of maximum and minimum temperatures, as well as extreme heat events, which will threaten human lives, livelihoods, and ecosystems. Rising temperatures will accelerate the melting of Kazakhstan’s glaciers, which is expected to lead to increased river runoff and flood risks until the mid-21st century, followed by long-term declines in river runoff. PURPOSE OF ASSIGNMENT The main objective of the project is to analyse and integrate climate risks into development planning processes at the subnational (oblast) level. In 2021, Kazakhstan amended its Environmental Code, integrating climate change adaptation into the national planning system. The Code defines the key stages of the adaptation process, including climate risk assessment, development of adaptation measures, their integration into strategic planning documents, and subsequent monitoring of implementation. The project is currently initiating the development of oblast-level adaptation plans in the pilot regions of North Kazakhstan and Kyzylorda oblasts. The development of such plans requires an objective mechanism for analysing, assessing, and prioritizing adaptation measures, taking into account their impact on regional development, economic efficiency, water resource constraints, and alignment with existing planning and program documents. To address this task, the project envisages the development of an analytical toolkit that will serve as the basis for a digital decision-support module within the “Akim’s Digital Cabinet” information system. The toolkit should enable assessment of the impact of adaptation measures on the achievement of regional development targets, cost-benefit and trade-off analysis, assessment of resource and water management constraints, and prioritization of measures for their inclusion in the Development Programs of the oblasts and oblast-level adaptation plans. The results obtained will be used to establish a unified analytical approach for assessing adaptation measures and analysing measures included in the Development Programs of the oblasts regarding the impact of climate risks on the achievement of regional development objectives. To carry out this work, a national expert with experience in applying multi-criteria analysis methods, economic project appraisal, an understanding of government strategic planning processes, and experience in adapting international decision-support tools is required. Accordingly, it is necessary to engage a “National Expert on Analytical Tools for the Assessment and Prioritization of Adaptation Measures” (hereinafter referred to as the “National Expert”).

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