National Consultancy Services on conducting Tracer Study in Kenya

1.Introduction and Purpose The forced displacement crisis has increased in scale and complexity in recent years. According to UNHCR, there were about 117.3 million forcibly displaced persons (FDPs) in 2025, of whom about 39 million refugees and asylum-seekers.1 The impact of forced displacement is substantial both among those in displacement and hosting communities. In this context, the Government of the Netherlands in 2019 launched the PROSPECTS Partnership Programme, built on the combined strengths, experience and values of specific development and humanitarian organizations. The partners include the Government of the Netherlands, the International Finance Corporation (IFC), the ILO, UNHCR, UNICEF and the World Bank. The programme aims to transform the way governments and other stakeholders respond to forced displacement crises, in particular by enhancing the enabling environment for socio-economic inclusion of forcibly displaced persons; improving access to education and child protection for vulnerable children on the move; and strengthening the resilience of host communities through inclusive socio-economic development that also benefits displaced populations. Currently in its second phase, the programme is grounded in results-based and country-led approaches in MENA (Egypt, Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon) and the Horn of Africa (Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda and Sudan). It seeks to accelerate sustainable solutions through evidence-based and context-specific interventions, including testing innovative operational solutions and improving the availability, collection and use of data and evidence. ILO’s vision within the programme is to strengthen decent work in displacement-affected countries to support inclusive socio-economic outcomes for host communities and forcibly displaced populations. In Kenya, the PROSPECTS Programme is implemented primarily in Garissa and Turkana Counties, the country's two largest refugee-hosting counties. The programme works closely with county governments, relevant public institutions, employers' and workers' organizations, private sector actors, development partners, and other key stakeholders. At the national level, PROSPECTS collaborates with line ministries, government agencies, social partners, and development partners to promote policies and interventions that foster the socio-economic inclusion, self-reliance, and resilience of refugees and host communities. According to UNHCR data as of 31 May 2026, Kenya hosted 852,3882 refugees and asylum seekers. Of these, 417,767 (49%) resided in Dadaab, Garissa County, while 316,460 (37%) lived in Kakuma Refugee Camp and Kalobeyei Integrated Settlement in Turkana County. The remaining 118,161 individuals (14%) resided in urban areas, primarily Nairobi. Garissa and Turkana are arid and semi-arid counties where livelihoods are predominantly pastoralist and communities face recurrent droughts, climate-related shocks, limited economic opportunities, and persistent development challenges. These vulnerabilities affect both refugee and host populations and underscore the need for integrated and sustainable approaches to economic and social inclusion. Within this context, the PROSPECTS Programme seeks to strengthen the resilience, self-reliance, and socio-economic well-being of refugees and host communities through integrated interventions across four pillars, namely: Education and Learning/ skills development, Economic Inclusion, Protection and Social Protection, and Critical Infrastructure. At the ILO, the programme promotes market-relevant skills development, entrepreneurship and enterprise development, improved access to livelihoods and employment opportunities, and stronger labour market systems that support inclusive and sustainable economic growth. Through these interventions, PROSPECTS contributes to expanding pathways to decent work, enhancing productivity and incomes, and supporting the long-term socio-economic inclusion of refugees and host communities in line with national development priorities and the Global Compact on Refugees. 2.Scope of work PROSPECTS designed a tracer study methodology to assess the impacts of the program on its beneficiaries. The programme team is now looking to hire a service provider to implement this tracer methodology in Kenya. This tracer, which for the first round will serve as a baseline to which data from subsequent rounds can be compared with, will focus on beneficiaries that have just started to receive support from ILO PROSPECTS. The consultancy firm will work closely with the programme team to collect data for outcome-level indicators and responding to specific learning questions. These indicators revolve around the employment or self-employment situation, decent work conditions, access to financial services, self-reliance and social cohesion. The tracer study will require the sampling of a minimum of 616 valid surveys collected, across the various PROSPECTS intervention components. Surveys are preferred to be conducted over the phone whenever feasible and when possible, for cost efficiency. However, if practical challenges, quality control concerns, cultural sensitivities, or geographic limitations arise, in-person surveys will need to be employed. It is expected that all surveys are collected by experienced and well-trained enumerators using electronic data collection. The tracer survey will be accompanied by 10-12 Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) in-person with ILO PROSPECTS beneficiaries, based on purposive sampling for the different categories (e.g., type of intervention received, gender, host community versus forcibly displaced persons, etc.). These lines of enquiry shall provide valuable information the ILO can use for comparison in the future measurements about the changes to those that have been exposed to the project interventions. Depending on performance and funding availability, the selected service provider may be requested to support a second round of data collection us