Impact-Based Forecasting System for Climate Risks in Somalia - CDRF-ADRiFi Project

The services included under this assignment comprise the design and demonstration of a practical, scalable and locally manageable national Impact Based Forecasting framework and prototype analytical package for priority climate-related disaster risks in Somalia. The assignment will review existing forecasts, early-warning systems, datasets, institutional mandates and decision workflows; define priority use cases; develop a transparent forecast impact action framework; prepare hazard-to-impact matrices, thresholds, warning levels, trigger logic and early-action guidance for drought and flood; produce and test prototype maps, bulletins, alerts, risk matrices and decision-support templates; prepare standard operating procedures and data-governance arrangements; train users; and provide a phased and costed operational roadmap. Demonstration and testing will cover no more than two agreed test areas. The assignment will use available data and existing forecast products and will not establish a fully automated national real-time forecasting platform or procure permanent ICT or hydrometeorological hardware. The estimated duration is six (6) months, with Mogadishu as the primary duty station and limited travel to agreed test areas where feasible and secure.