Below 2 Bar Risk Model

Cadent, working with Northern Gas Networks, SGN and Wales & West Utilities, is seeking information from the market to inform the potential development of a future Below 2 Bar Risk Model. The capability would support public-safety risk assessment, network planning and regulatory decision-making associated with GD4 / RIIO-4 and beyond. The current Mains Replacement Prioritisation System has supported the Iron Mains Risk Reduction Programme. The participating Gas Distribution Networks are now considering how a shared, defensible and future-proof approach could preserve safety performance while improving transparency, auditability and consistency across networks.

1.1 Current context:

• The future model is intended to provide transparent intelligence that supports intervention and investment prioritisation, without itself making operational decisions or generating work packages.
• Its core purpose is public-safety risk assessment for relevant distribution assets operating up to 2 bar. Worker risk, monetisation and economic factors are outside the core risk calculation.
• The model must be capable of supporting regulator scrutiny and consistent interpretation across the participating Gas Distribution Networks.

1.2 Information sought from the market:

This RFI is deliberately concise. It seeks an early indication of market capability, material gaps and relevant experience. It is not intended to request a detailed solution, delivery plan, commercial proposal or evidential response at this stage. More detailed information may be requested through the subsequent Expression of Interest, Pre-Qualification Questionnaire and Invitation to Tender stages.

High Level Scope:

The proposed capability is a common, transparent and auditable public-safety risk model for relevant gas distribution assets operating at pressures up to 2 bar. It should provide risk intelligence that enables the participating Gas Distribution Networks to understand and compare risk consistently, identify the assets and factors that contribute to risk, and support defensible planning, investment and regulatory decision-making. The model is expected to inform decisions rather than make operational decisions or generate work packages. The scope includes relevant mains, services and risers, with the potential for delivery to be phased or modular while retaining a common methodology, units of measure and governance framework. The capability should address risk to individuals and groups, cumulative risk from multiple assets, attribution of risk to contributing assets and factors, consequence and injury or fatality likelihood, and the effect of property, building and occupancy characteristics. It should also accommodate differences in available data, data quality and maturity across the participating networks. The future model should be capable of validation, independent assurance and regulatory scrutiny. Its calculations, assumptions, coefficients, data inputs and outputs should be explainable to technical and non-technical users. The participating Gas Distribution Networks should be able to govern and sustain the methodology over the long term, including controlled updates, a common national baseline with justified local variation, and appropriate ownership of methodology, configuration, parameters and intellectual property. This RFI is not asking respondents to design the complete solution. Respondents should consider whether their organisation can meet the overall scope, identify any material capability or feasibility gaps, and highlight where an aspect of the emerging requirement may be unrealistic or would benefit from clarification, simplification or phasing. Please email [contact details removed] to receive the RfI documentation. This will include all the information required to submit your response. Please note: This RFI is for information and market-engagement purposes only. It does not constitute a commitment to procure. The scope and outcomes are indicative and emerging, allowing respondents to propose alternative methods and good practice.