Baseline Assessment for the Climate Resilient Eastern African Transboundary Water Management for Environmental Sustainability (CREATES) Programme

Terms of Reference

Title: Baseline Assessment for the Climate Resilient Eastern African Transboundary Water Management for Environmental Sustainability (CREATES) Programme

Objective of the Consultancy

This consultancy has the following objective(s): Overall Objective To conduct a comprehensive baseline assessment and Results Framework validation for the CREATES Programme to establish credible baseline values, validate programme indicators and measurement approaches, and provide an evidence base for effective programme implementation, monitoring, learning, evaluation and adaptive management. Specific Objectives

The consultancy shall specifically**: **

- Establish baseline values for all indicators in the CREATES Results Framework using appropriate qualitative and quantitative methods. - Validate the programme Results Framework, including indicator definitions, measurement methodologies, data sources, assumptions, and means of verification, and recommend improvements where necessary. - Establish basin-level baseline values for the programme's impact indicator on Achievement of SDG Target 6.5 on Transboundary Water Management, including assessment of the four contributing scoring dimensions. - Assess the feasibility of achieving the targeted basin level 10% improvement contribution to the SDG 6.5 impact indicator and recommend strategic areas of focus to maximise programme results. - Validate existing programme data from stakeholders’ workshops and ground truthing and assess its quality, reliability, and suitability for establishing programme baselines. - Generate evidence-based recommendations to strengthen programme monitoring, data management, adaptive management, learning, evaluation and results measurement throughout the programme implementation period.

Background

Project Reference: P04608

About IUCN

IUCN is a membership Union uniquely composed of both government and civil society organisations. It provides public, private and non-governmental organisations with the knowledge and tools that enable human progress, economic development and nature conservation to take place together. Created in 1948, IUCN is now the world’s largest and most diverse environmental network, harnessing the knowledge, resources and reach of more than 1,400 Member organisations and around 15,000 experts. It is a leading provider of conservation data, assessments and analysis. Its broad membership enables IUCN to fill the role of incubator and trusted repository of best practices, tools and international standards. IUCN provides a neutral space in which diverse stakeholders including governments, NGOs, scientists, businesses, local communities, indigenous peoples organisations and others can work together to forge and implement solutions to environmental challenges and achieve sustainable development. Working with many partners and supporters, IUCN implements a large and diverse portfolio of conservation projects worldwide. Combining the latest science with the traditional knowledge of local communities, these projects work to reverse habitat loss, restore ecosystems and improve people’s well-being.

About the Project

The Climate Resilient Eastern African Transboundary Water Management for Environmental Sustainability (CREATES) Programme is a five-year regional initiative (2026-2030) funded by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Denmark with a budget of DKK 300 million as Denmark's contribution to the European Union's Team Europe Initiative (TEI) on Transboundary Water Management (TWM) in Africa. The programme seeks to improve the effectiveness of transboundary water management in Eastern Africa to enhance water security, climate resilience, regional cooperation, and sustainable development in selected transboundary river basins. CREATES is implemented jointly by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and UNEP-DHI Centre for Water and Environment through two complementary projects that collectively contribute to a common programme objective. The programme focuses on two transboundary river basins: the Mara Basin, shared between Kenya and Tanzania, and the Sio-Malaba-Malakisi (SMM) Basin, shared between Kenya and Uganda. These basins were selected due to their ecological significance, socio-economic importance, existing transboundary cooperation mechanisms, and the urgent need to strengthen climate-resilient and sustainable water resources management. The programme responds to persistent challenges affecting transboundary water management in Eastern Africa, including inadequate hydrological and environmental data, limited decision-support systems, weak institutional and governance capacities, insufficient cross-border coordination, inadequate financing for transboundary water investments, and low adoption of climate-resilient Nature-based Solutions (NbS). Through strengthening institutional capacity, improving access to decision-support tools and knowledge, enhancing governance arrangements, promoting collaborative water resources management, and supporting investments in climate-resilient water infrastructure and NbS, CREATES aims to contribute to improved water security and resilience across the target basins. The Programme seeks to achieve the following four immediate outcomes: - Outcome A1: Water agencies, River Basin Organisations (RBOs), and regional bodies conduct effective climate-resilient transboundary water resources management through improved technical capacity and decision-support tools. - Outcome A2: Water agencies, RBOs and regional bodies implement and share improved climate-resilient Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) practices. - Outcome B1: Governance arrangements for transboundary water management are strengthened, enabling institutions to effectively deliver on their mandates, operationalise policy and regulatory frameworks, mobilise resources, and support policy dialogue and conflict prevention.

- Outcome B2: Climate-resilient water infrastructure combined with Nat