Senior Migration and Mobility Research Specialist/Consultant - Geopolitical Shocks Report (Consultancy)

Position Title: Senior Migration and Mobility Research Specialist - Geopolitical Shocks Report<br>Duty Station: Kabul, Afghanistan<br>Expected Start Date of Deployment: 15 September 2026<br>Deployment Duration: 3 months, 16 days<br>Organizational Context and Scope:<br>Under the overall supervision of the Chief of Mission in Afghanistan and the direct supervision of the Senior Programme Coordinator, DTM, and in close coordination with relevant IOM Afghanistan, regional and headquarters colleagues, the incumbent will support the development of a flagship analytical report: How Geopolitical Shocks Reshape Population Movements;<br>The incumbent will lead the analytical framework, interpretation, drafting and recommendations for How Geopolitical Shocks Reshape Population Movements. The report will examine how return policies, deportations, border restrictions, regional conflict, economic crises and major policy shifts are associated with changes in movement volumes, routes, destinations, profiles, vulnerabilities and intentions. The incumbent will work in parallel with the Mobility Data and Quantitative Analysis Specialist and frame politically sensitive issues cautiously and objectively.<br>The incumbent will work as part of a parallel two-person report team and coordinate closely with the corresponding research or analytical specialist. IOM's in-house information management and GIS teams will support approved data access, validation and map production. All work must comply with IOM standards on data protection, confidentiality, ethical analysis and information security. Where advanced analytics or artificial intelligence-assisted methods are used, they must remain transparent, proportionate, subject to human review and consistent with IOM standards; sensitive or personally identifiable data must not be entered into unauthorized tools or environments.<br>Responsibilities and Accountabilities:<br>- Develop a shock-to-mobility analytical framework, research questions, shock classification and case-selection criteria that are methodologically clear and feasible within the assignment period.<br>- Conduct and synthesize targeted literature, policy, political-economy and regional contextual reviews and establish a validated event chronology for selected shocks.<br>- Define the report structure and provide timely analytical requirements to the paired data specialist and in-house GIS team so that evidence generation and drafting progress in parallel.<br>- Interpret movement trends and profile changes by border point, route, destination, population group, vulnerability and intention where data allow, and clearly communicate uncertainty and limitations.<br>- Draft the full report, including methodology, selected cases, findings, executive summary, conclusions, recommendations and key messages.<br>- Examine household and community adaptation, secondary displacement and onward-movement implications without presenting temporal association as causation unless supported by evidence.<br>- Coordinate technical exchanges with IOM colleagues and relevant stakeholders and incorporate consolidated comments while maintaining consistent and neutral analysis.<br>- Prepare a short policy brief and presentation/talking points and complete a structured handover of narrative files, references and supporting materials.<br>Expected Assignment Outputs:<br>- Inception package within 10 working days, including shock-to-mobility framework, research questions, event classification, detailed outline and analytical requirements.<br>- Validated chronology, contextual review and preliminary narrative package by 20 October 2026.<br>- Complete first draft by 20 November 2026.<br>- Final publication-ready narrative, policy brief and presentation package by 18 December 2026.<br>Required Qualifications and Experience:<br>EDUCATION<br>Master's degree or higher in migration studies, international relations, political science, economics, public policy, demography, humanitarian studies or a related field from an accredited academic institution with at least five years of relevant professional experience; or a university degree in the above fields with at least seven years of relevant professional experience.<br>EXPERIENCE<br>- Extensive experience in migration, displacement, border dynamics, regional mobility, humanitarian analysis or policy research.<br>- Demonstrated experience leading major analytical reports on migration trends, forced returns, mixed movements, policy shocks, conflict or regional mobility.<br>- Experience triangulating quantitative evidence with policy, political-economy and contextual analysis.<br>- Experience in fragile or politically sensitive settings; Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan, South Asia, MENA or comparable regional experience is highly desirable.<br>- Experience applying responsible AI or advanced research tools under clear institutional safeguards is desirable, particularly for traceable evidence synthesis and human validation.<br>SKILLS<br>- Excellent policy-oriented analytical writing in English.<br>- Strong understanding of migration routes, border dynamics, forced return, onward movement, household adaptation and regional geopolitical developments.<br>- Ability to interpret time-series and profile analysis and communicate uncertainty and methodological limitations.<br>- Strong judgement and neutral language in politically sensitive analysis.<br>Languages:<br>Fluency in English is required (oral and written). Working knowledge of Dari, Pashto, or another relevant regional language is an advantage.<br>How to apply<br>Application Process (IMPORTANT)<br>This opportunity is managed through the IOM Deployment Roster. You can refer to this link:<br>https://bit.ly/Consultant-SeniorMigrationandMobilityResearch<br>To apply:<br>- Candidates must first register in the Deployment Roster via the online sign-up on the platform - https://globalroster.iom.int/<br>- Complete the profile and submit required information.<br>- Apply to this specific opportunity through the roster platform<br>Only candidates who complete the roster registration process will be