Research Consultant for Predictive Poverty Mapping and Policy in Brazil

The mission of the Human Development Report Office (HDRO) is to advance human development. The goal is to contribute towards the expansion of opportunities, choices, and freedoms. HDRO works towards this goal by promoting innovative new ideas, advocating practical policy changes, and constructively challenging policies and approaches that constrain human development. HDRO works with others to achieve change through writing and research, data analysis, outreach, and advocacy work. HDRO is uniquely positioned within the UN system as an independent research office that combines the credibility and convening power of the United Nations with the freedom to challenge prevailing narratives and explore frontier issues. It works with multi-stakeholder partners globally to achieve change through writing and research, data analysis and presentation, support to national and regional analysis as well as outreach and advocacy work.

As part of its ongoing work on the future of human development and measurement, HDRO is partnering with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Brazil and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) to develop a Global Innovation Lab on Human Development which will explore new analytical approaches and methodologies for understanding human development challenges in the context of rapid technological and environmental change. This research consultancy will help make meaningful progress in advancing these goals, primarily in the context of neighborhood-scale demographic analysis in Brazil, where poverty varies drastically across and within municipalities. The primary objective of this project is to, in conjunction with HDRO and UNDP-Brazil, provide the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) with technical assistance for the development of new methodologies and approaches for calculating human development indicators designed for the 21st-century Human Development agenda, focusing on the themes of poverty, climate change, and technological transition, providing inputs for developing predictive, data-driven public policy. The work will consist of two main components: i. Downscaling development indicator estimates in Brazil at the city-block scale across municipalities, with the cities of Rio de Janeiro and Recife as likely comparative case studies. ii. Informing predictive policies related to poverty, climate, technological, and demographic change.

HDRO is therefore investing in the next generation of quantitative human development research, particularly in granular, spatially explicit mapping methodologies and predictive modeling. Earlier this year, HDRO and Global Policy Lab (GPL) colleagues published downscaled, high-resolution global estimates of the Human Development Index (HDI) using satellite imagery and machine learning (SI/ML) techniques, reflecting the kind of methodological innovation this initiative seeks to apply in Brazil.

The research consultant will therefore assist with such innovative applications in the Brazilian context, constructing granular diagnostics to inform targeted municipal poverty reduction policy. The consultant is expected to engage with key thematic experts